OpenAI is once again in the AI market spotlight. This time, the focus is not a new ChatGPT release but troubling signals for investors: according to media reports, the company missed its active user growth and financial targets. This has already affected shares of companies closely tied to AI infrastructure, including NVIDIA, Oracle, AMD, CoreWeave and SoftBank.
What happened
According to information cited by ITC.ua, OpenAI failed to meet its internal targets for growth in ChatGPT’s active user base. The company reportedly also missed its financial targets. Against this backdrop, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar expressed concern about whether the company could continue to afford enormous computing capacity contracts.
This is a critical issue for OpenAI. Modern AI models require vast resources: data centers, graphics processors, energy, server infrastructure and long-term supplier agreements. As the number of users and enterprise customers grows, so does the strain on infrastructure. But if revenue grows more slowly than spending, the business model starts to look risky.
Why this matters for NVIDIA and Oracle
OpenAI is actively signing multibillion-dollar deals to secure access to future computing capacity. NVIDIA and Oracle are among its key partners. NVIDIA supplies chips and GPU infrastructure, while Oracle is involved in developing data centers and cloud capacity for AI workloads.
The source mentions major agreements involving projects worth hundreds of billions of dollars, including a deal with Oracle for data center infrastructure and agreements with NVIDIA to deploy hardware.
The problem is that the market has already priced enormous future demand for AI into these companies’ valuations. If OpenAI or other market leaders cannot monetize their products quickly, investors may revise their expectations. That is why news of OpenAI’s missed targets put pressure on shares of related companies.
The market has already reacted
Following reports of OpenAI’s difficulties, shares of several companies tied to the AI boom began falling in premarket trading. ITC.ua reported that NVIDIA fell roughly 1%, AMD 4%, Oracle 5% and CoreWeave 5%, while SoftBank lost about 9.9% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
This does not mean the AI market is collapsing, but it reveals something significant: investors are becoming more cautious. Previously, almost any AI-related news was seen as a reason for stocks to rise. Now the market is starting to ask tougher questions: where are the profits, when will data centers pay for themselves, and how realistic are demand forecasts?
The main risk: spending is growing faster than revenue
OpenAI is betting on scale. The logic is simple: more computing capacity means more opportunities to launch new models, serve users and sell enterprise products. But this strategy requires a steady inflow of capital.
If user or revenue growth slows, a cash shortfall becomes a risk. One analyst cited in the original report believes OpenAI could run out of money as early as mid-2027 unless it continues to attract substantial investment.
This is a warning sign for the industry. AI companies are building their businesses on expectations of explosive future demand. But the infrastructure bills must be paid now.
Competitors are increasing the pressure
Just a few years ago, OpenAI was the undisputed symbol of generative AI. The launch of ChatGPT in 2022 effectively opened the mass market for products based on large language models. But competition has since become much tougher.
Anthropic is strengthening its position in the enterprise sector and among developers. Google is actively developing Gemini and promoting its models across the Workspace, Android and Cloud ecosystem. Meta is betting on open models, while xAI, Mistral and other players are adding pressure in different market segments.
This means OpenAI can no longer grow simply on the strength of its pioneer status. The company needs to demonstrate its products’ effectiveness, retain users and show that it can monetize them sustainably.
AI CEO’s perspective
The situation at OpenAI does not necessarily mark the end of the AI boom. It is more likely a sign that the market is entering a more mature phase.
In 2023–2025, investors were buying into an idea: artificial intelligence would change everything. In 2026, the market is starting to buy into numbers: revenue, margins, returns on infrastructure investment and real business use cases.
AI itself is not a bubble. But inflated expectations around companies spending hundreds of billions of dollars faster than they can demonstrate sustainable economics could become one.
The winners of the next phase will be those that can turn computing capacity into profitable products, rather than simply buy more GPUs: business automation, AI agents, enterprise platforms, and tools for software development, medicine, education, finance and industry.
What this means for the AI market
For NVIDIA and Oracle, the near-term outlook is mixed. Demand for AI infrastructure remains enormous, but dependence on a handful of major customers makes the market vulnerable. If OpenAI, Anthropic, Google or other leaders start slowing their purchases, it could trigger a correction across the supply chain, from chipmakers to data center operators.
For investors, the main takeaway is straightforward: AI remains one of the most promising industries, but the era of “growth at any cost” is gradually coming to an end. Polished presentations and high-profile partnerships still matter, but so does a company’s ability to earn more than it spends.
Conclusion
OpenAI’s situation shows that the AI market is entering a reality-check phase. Enormous investments in chips, cloud computing and data centers need to start delivering clear returns. If they do not, a correction could affect not only OpenAI but also the largest infrastructure players: NVIDIA, Oracle, AMD, CoreWeave and SoftBank.
The AI revolution continues. But investors will now be looking at the economics as well as the potential.
